NHL Reflections: A poor man's 32 thoughts
Musings on the Stanley Cup Final, the NHL Draft, free agency, the Utah Mammoth, and Arizona hockey
I always marveled at Elliotte Friedman's ability to produce a weekly collection of 32 thoughts, which he finally discontinued. I realize that he had the entire NHL as his palette, but trust me, that sort of production (in addition to everything else Friedman does) is a monumental task.
That is my simple way of saying: Don't expect me to be producing the content that follows this lede on a regular basis. I could not manage it. I am not covering the NHL full-time any more, I have a 9-to-5 job, I have a family, and in case you haven't noticed, this Substack is free so it's not a forum where I plan to write nearly as regularly as I once did. Call me crazy, but I like making money off my work.
That said, I have a lot of thoughts rattling around my head regarding the Stanley Cup Final, the NHL Draft, free agency, the Utah Mammoth, and Arizona hockey.
Here are 32 of them:
1. It's hard to gauge where this Stanley Cup Final ranks among the greatest of all-time. Recency bias tends to cloud people's judgment so that every year or two, we crown a new championship series or game "the best ever," no matter the sport. Opinions will always vary, but this comprehensive ranking of every Cup Final in the salary-cap era, produced by The Athletic's Chris Johnston, does a credible job of putting each series in its proper perspective. And while this ranking of every Final since expansion needs an update, it gives greater weight to history in the Post-Original Six era.
For me, a Cup Final has to have three main ingredients to rank among the all-time classics. It has to go seven games, it has to involve a majority of highly contested games, and it has to include signature moments. This series has already featured three overtime games, myriad signature moments, and if Edmonton can win Game 6, it will go seven. On the flip side, Florida has two rather lopsided wins, including a defensive masterclass in Game 5. The jury is out, but there is potential for this series to enter the Cup Final pantheon.
2. American NHL fans like to troll Canadian fans because of the 32-year Stanley Cup drought of the seven Canadian-based NHL teams. I have been a part of that trolling, with my annual singing of "No Canada" when the last Canadian team is eliminated, but I would genuinely be happy to see the Oilers end the drought. Canada gave us this beautiful game, Canada gave us the lion's share of the greatest players in NHL history, and Canada has suffered long enough. It's time.
3. If Edmonton does rally to win, will it mean that we can expect more from McDavid and Co.? I wouldn't go that far. Florida just made its third straight Final appearance, but that is very difficult to do so don't count on Edmonton getting back for a third straight Final. I thought the West was down a little bit this season, without a truly dominant team. That helped the Oilers’ cause.
4. It was startling to realize that the top four picks from the 2014 NHL Draft were all competing in this Cup Final: Aaron Ekblad, Sam Reinhart, Leon Draisaitl and Sam Bennett. Both of these teams were also in the Cup Final the year before, but this is a testament to how long it takes to build a championship contender. Take a look at the key pieces and when they were drafted.
5. You can make a strong argument that the Toronto Maple Leafs were the NHL's second- or third-best team this season. They took the Panthers to seven games. Granted the manner in which the Panthers dispatched them in Game 5 and Game 7 should not sit well with management or the locals, but the Leafs won the Atlantic Division for the first time since joining it in 2013 and they pushed a team that has been to the Cup Final three straight times to the brink. I still wonder what might have happened had goalie Anthony Stolarz stayed healthy, but GM Brad Trelving and this cast deserve some credit. Tweaks to this roster are in order, but wholesale changes probably are not.
6. Speaking of the Leafs, the Mitch Marner sweepstakes are going to be fascinating. I don’t think Marner deserves the $14-$15 million AAV that has been reported in some circles. I think Marner is an exceptionally talented playmaking forward with speed and underrated defensive abilities, but I don't think he is the headline player on a team that wins a Cup. I don't think his game translates well enough on the playoff stage where the game gets gritty and hard.
Marner finished seventh in the NHL during the regular season in points per game at 1.26, but he dropped to a tie for 21st (currently) in the postseason, and he only had two goals. That's simply not good enough for a player to command top dollar — a player whose main calling card is his production.
7. Speaking of Marner, there has been a lot of discussion among Utah fans and the local media about adding him to the lineup. I think that would be a mistake. GM Bill Armstrong has said numerous times that free agency is where teams make their biggest errors. There's this notion that the market establishes a player's true value. No, it doesn't. It overinflates a player's value due to the scarcity of options and the competition for those few options. It's simple supply-and-demand theory.
8. Armstrong has also said that you need to be careful not to sign a player who might help in the short term, but whose contract could hamstring the team when it is ready to contend for a Cup. That is exactly what Marner is. Aside from the drawbacks noted above, he's 28. It's reasonable to expect him to produce at an elite clip for two or three more seasons before his regression begins.
Anybody who thinks Utah is going to be a Cup contender in the next couple seasons is drinking too much Kool-Aid or conducting poor analysis. There are too many questions about this roster, and there is too much youth among the key pieces that needs time to develop, with more on the way. Armstrong and his staff have studied the normal timelines for Cup contention. The Mammoth is not there yet, and one offseason won't change that. If watching the Cup Final hasn't hammered home that reality, I would respectfully suggest that you rethink your analysis.
9. Here's another thing to consider about Marner: He's not what Utah needs most. The Mammoth needs a top-six center, and the Mammoth needs a scoring wing. The hockey operations staff analyzed the team's shortcomings after the regular season and concluded that finishing the vast amount of quality chances Utah generated was a top priority. Any sound analysis would also conclude that Logan Cooley and Barrett Hayton as your top two centers won’t push the Mammoth into Cup contention. Marner doesn’t fit either need. He is a playmaking wing (he was tied for 57th in goals). I would be stunned to see Utah sign him, even if he wants to come to Salt Lake City. Better to find a goal-scoring wing or a center at a lower price.
10. One last Marner thought. I still think he will sign with a contender in the end; a team such as Vegas. Utah doesn't mind being mentioned as a free-agent destination for top players, but my guess is the Mammoth will also be careful about optics. You don't want to invite a free agent in and then have him reject you.
11. I don't know how Utah is going to land the top-six center that most Cup contenders land via the top two picks in the NHL Draft (Pittsburgh, Colorado, Tampa, Florida and Edmonton among them). Utah finally got a bit of luck in the lottery this year, but that only moved it up to No. 4. Top-end centers almost always go before that. The Mammoth probably has to find a way to make a trade for that player. That won't be easy. I’m not sure that there is much of a trade market with the cap going up and no teams are really in rebuild mode right now.
12. At least Armstrong can look at his past when crafting a plan to get that center (if he doesn't draft one to fit the bill this year). The 2018-19 St. Louis Blues won the Cup after acquiring center Ryan O'Reilly in a trade with Buffalo. The Vegas Golden Knights also won the 2023 Cup after acquiring Jack Eichel in a trade with Buffalo. Maybe Armstrong should inquire about Tage Thompson — a guy whom he drafted in St. Louis. The Sabres seem to be willing to trade away No. 1 centers. Yes, I know the Sabres moved Thompson to wing, but I don't trust many of Buffalo's decisions. And yes, I'm joking about a Thompson trade, but only half-joking.
13. Might as well get this out of the way right now. I will never use Mammoth as a plural. This isn't England and this isn't soccer. If you want me to say “Mammoth are,” then add an S to the nickname as you should have from the start. Singular nicknames are singular. The Mammoth, however, is a unique mascot with a lot of marketing potential. Kids will love the stuffed-animal version.
14. I have to wonder if Utah coach André Tourigny is on notice this season. I saw the same Jon Cooper rumors that you did. Mammoth president Chris Armstrong effectively quashed those rumors, but I do think there is pressure on Tourigny to make the playoffs this season. Utah missed the postseason by seven points this past season, but it took another step in reaching the 89-point mark, and that was accomplished while playing without two top-four defensemen (Sean Durzi and John Marino) for more than half the season. Once Marino returned to the lineup, Utah had the 13th most points in the league.
Utah has some holes to address in its lineup — notably the two mentioned above — and more development ahead, but it's reasonable to expect a playoff berth this season. In fact, Armstrong has admitted that it should be an expectation. If it doesn't happen, the coach is generally the first guy to take the fall. If you need further proof of the tenuous nature of NHL coaching, consider that Tourigny is already the fourth-longest tenured coach in the league. He was hired on July 1, 2021.
15. Utah center Logan Cooley is eligible to sign a contract extension on July 1, but I would not expect negotiations to begin until the late summer at the earliest. I have seen reports that Cooley's AAV could come in around $8.5 million. I think that's too low, especially if Utah wants to sign him to a long-term deal. Cooley is poised to carry the largest AAV on the Mammoth.
16. If Russian prospects Dmitri Simashev and Daniil But need to spend time in Tucson next season, don’t be alarmed. The only instant NHL’er on this roster that Armstrong, Plandowski and Co. drafted is Logan Cooley, a player with special exceptions that helped convince him to leave the University of Minnesota early. I do think both Russians will be in the NHL this season, but the amount of games they play will depend on their adjustment to a faster, harder game played in tighter spaces and tighter time windows. As Tucson GM John Ferguson Jr. once told me, "I've never seen a player who spent too much time in the AHL, but I have seen plenty who didn't spend enough time there."
17. It will take a willing trade partner and a decent return for what is currently a devalued asset, but I suspect that forward Matias Maccelli has played his last game for Utah. Maccelli, once a bright spot on a rebuilding team, had just eight goals and 18 points in 55 games this past season. He frequently found himself as a healthy scratch, with Tourigny noting that he didn't look fully engaged. I don't think Maccelli ever adapted to a lesser role — lower in the lineup, in different situations, and playing about 2½ minutes less than the season before. Maccelli's playmaking skills are beyond question. He is an elite passer. He may be able to regain his mojo with a fresh start elsewhere.
18. Speaking of trade targets, what becomes of Nick Schmaltz this season? He is entering the final year of his contract, he's 29 and he is coming off his fourth straight season of 20 or more goals while averaging 60 points over that span. If Utah is in the playoff hunt, it's hard to imagine Armstrong moving any pieces at the trade deadline instead of adding. If Utah is out of the playoff picture at the deadline, I'd expect Schmaltz to be shopped. But what about a draft-day trade of Schmaltz as part of a greater package? We know Utah's greatest needs, and at this stage of the team's development, getting established NHL players seems a greater priority than acquiring more draft picks. It’s just a thought with no proof that this option is on the table…
19. On the flip side, don't expect Lawson Crouse to go anywhere. Crouse got off to an agonizingly slow start last season, and he never regained his scoring touch from the previous three seasons, but once he was teamed with Jack McBain and Josh Doan, Crouse played excellent hockey and the line was often dominant in terms of possession, offensive-zone time and scoring chances. Utah wants Crouse back.
20. Up until now, Utah was expected to shop for a backup goalie after Connor Ingram entered the NHL/NHLPA player assistance program for mental health reasons related to his mother's death from breast cancer in December. The Mammoth still may hunt for a backup, but after talking to multiple sources, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Ingram could be ready for the 2025-26 season. Those sources say Ingram is doing very well, even playing in a men's league to round back into shape. And that's great to hear.
Having evaluated his game on more than last season's small sample, the Utah hockey operations staff knows that Ingram can be a very good NHL goalie when he is right. He showed it for a season and a half in Arizona, capping it off by winning the 2023-24 Masterton Trophy.
21: I wouldn't put any stock in recent reports that the ECHL's Utah Grizzlies are poised to become the Mammoth's new AHL franchise. First off, you can't just elevate an ECHL franchise to the AHL. The AHL bylaws prohibit it. The AHL specifically wants to have the same number of teams as the NHL.
Utah will remain affiliated with Tucson for the upcoming season. After that, I don't know what will happen. Owner Ryan Smith could look to purchase an existing AHL franchise and move it to Utah, he could maintain the relationship with the Roadrunners, who might move to Reno if Alex Meruelo gets his arena built, or Smith could find an affiliation with one of the AHL's many independent clubs, though that seems less likely given the geographical distance for most of them.
22. I have seen a lot of Arizona fans complaining that Smith hasn't done enough for youth hockey in the Valley. It's a silly take. Too much credit is being granted Vegas for a superficial marketing plan that is not investing any real dollars in youth hockey in Arizona. Vegas is staging cheap events and giveaways to lure fans into the fold, but it is not making a genuine investment in Arizona hockey.
Is it more than Utah has done so far? Absolutely. But remember, Smith had five months to figure out how to stage an NHL season and get his team all the facilities and resources it needed. He didn’t even have time to pick a team name, and people are angry that he didn’t invest in the neighboring state’s youth hockey program in his first year of existence?! Seriously, what the heck are people thinking when they say stuff like this?
I have heard from sources that Utah may make a more sizable investment in Arizona youth hockey, with guidance from the league, so let's see how it plays out. Regardless, let's be clear: Smith is under no obligation to do anything in Arizona. He's doing more than enough — and far more than any Coyotes ownership group did — in his own market. But if he wants fans in Arizona, a legitimate investment makes sense.
23. I don't like the new format for the NHL Draft and I am not alone. Plenty of scouts miss the old format where the entire hockey community gathered in one place instead of this current, NFL-ish model. One of those scouts is Utah director of amateur scouting Darryl Plandowski: "I just like being in the city with the excitement of meeting people, whether it's media or agents or other scouts or families or coaches from junior teams and college teams,” he said. “It was a unique event and a lot of fun. This new format is going to be kind of sterile."
There have been rumors that, after the massive success of the 2024 NHL Draft at Sphere Las Vegas, the NHL might return to the all-in-one-place format that made this event unique, charming and community-based. So here's a plea: Dump the virtual draft, but stage the event in cool venues like Sphere, instead of NHL arenas. Consider iconic venues that offer great visuals. Make this a dry-land version of the Winter Classic where the venue matters as much as the event. The NHL has too few things that separate it from the other major North American pro sports. Don't spoil one of its few advantages.
24. The half dozen scouts to whom I have spoken say the NHL Draft is about eight deep in elite players. Defenseman Matthew Schaefer and center Michael Misa are the consensus top two picks, which will make things interesting for Utah at No. 4. The Mammoth’s decision will hinge on what the Chicago Blackhawks do at No. 3. Centers Anton Frondell, James Hagens, Jake O'Brien, Caleb Desnoyers, Brady Martin and wing Porter Martone are in that group from which Utah will likely make a selection — unless they pull a shocker like they did in 2023.
25. What will Utah do with the No. 4 pick? I don't know because they don't know yet. They could still trade it if the offer is right, despite reports to the contrary. They could use it to draft one more elite piece before the team presumably becomes a perennial playoff contender. Just remember that the period preceding the draft and free agency is rife with misinformation, whether floated by GMs, scouts or agents. There's a lot of misdirection this time of year to throw others off the scent. To paraphrase Jim Mora: You think you know, but you don't know, and you won't know until the draft.
26. Speaking of misinformation, there has been a local obsession in the extended Utah media with Martin, in part because of his farming backstory. But Utah isn't fixated solely on Martin and the fact that Utah had dinner with Martin isn't a surprise or a hint of what they plan to do. This is the same way the hockey operations staff has operated since it took over in 2020. They have dinner with all of the players who are on their draft board in the range of their first-round pick. Utah has zeroed in on a few players, but there is more work to be done before they settle on the player they are drafting, Plandowski said.
27. It's fun to imagine Florida center Sam Bennett signing with Utah. He has been spectacular in the postseason; a combination of offensive prowess (he leads the playoffs with 15 goals), defensive prowess and physicality. If the Panthers close out the Final on Tuesday, he could win the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP.
Utah needs another top-six center and I don't think Bennett is going to command the $10 million price tag that has been floated. I do, however, think Florida will make the necessary room to re-sign him, probably more in the $8-million-a-year range. His unique blend of skills makes him worth every penny of that salary, especially with the salary cap on the rise. To put it bluntly for the simplified analysis you may have seen elsewhere, it's not solely about point production. Hockey executives understand Bennett's value.
28. I'm still sore about Arizona State being snubbed from the NCAA Tournament last season as the second-place team in the NCHC — you know, the conference that has won eight of the past 10 NCAA championships. The conference that received only two bids last season while overrated Hockey East got six. The NCHC advanced both of its Tournament teams (Western Michigan and Denver) to the Frozen Four where they had to play each other in an epic, double-overtime affair. And the conference (Western Michigan) won the NCAA title. Again.
At least ASU is getting some preseason love with a roster that features more young star power than last season, but the PairWise Rankings need to be revamped. Last season’s system didn’t work.
29. Hope to see you at AZ ICE Gilbert for the event I wrote about last week.
30. It was good to see Arizona's USA Hockey registration numbers holding steady one year after the Coyotes' departure. That said, the impact won't truly be known for a few more years. Kudos to everyone who is making an effort to keep the game alive on what are too few ice sheets, and with no NHL financial support.
31. I have had several people ask me why there has been no news on the efforts to bring the NHL back to Arizona. Let me just say that no news doesn't mean no progress. There is plenty happening behind the scenes. As one source close to the situation told me: "Our mindset is to underpromise and (hopefully) overdeliver. Hockey fans in the Valley have had way too much of the opposite over the last two decades."
32. Speaking of the NHL's return to the Valley, let’s hope the new owner cares about hockey and the Valley, and not just about shopping malls, crushing investments, or whatever the heck it was that Meruelo cared about.
Any NHL expansion plan for the Valley has to include a plan to build more ice sheets. In November 2020, Arizona’s players-per-arena and players-per-ice-sheet were the highest in the nation, per USA Hockey data. Since then, the Valley has added one ice sheet (the Mountain America Community Iceplex in Tempe) while losing one (Oceanside Ice Arena in Tempe).
There are plenty of examples from which to learn (Dallas and Utah among them) when crafting an approach, but Arizona’s NHL expansion plans must include a genuine investment in the community, not just a direct investment in the product.
I too think the money being floated for Marner is crazy-talk, especially, as you also noted, Bennet's estimated asking price is lower and it could easily be argued he's had much more of an impact on his team's playoff run than Marner. There is always some group that will pay too much, though - in the past we could count on that to be Toronto but that's obviously out the window. I've been following the Canes closer now, while they do have a lot of cap space, and a lot of their fans seem to think it's a *great* idea - he's got to be a guy that will really help a team make the next step forward.... and I don't that he would be for Carolina.
Great article, Craig. I miss seeing you, Leah and Petey covering hockey on a daily basis, but really enjoyed this article. I hope you’re enjoying your summer and your change of pace with your current work!